Tuesday, January 11, 2011

On Horse Racing Handicapping Class

By Lynn Pettrey


In horse racing handicapping is class one of the difficult factors to estimate or quantify. As the level at which a horse can compete competitively class is probably best described. If that horse is in the level there would be a possibility that it wins.It may still lose the 5,000 claimer while another horse in the race may win without dropping while you may look at a horse dropping out of a 10,000 claimer into a 5,000 claimer and say it is a class horse in that race.

Depending upon where it finished once the horse who dropped out of the 10,000 claimer lost at 5,000 it had shed more light on its own ability and where it belongs. Then it may actually belong at the 5,000 level i it finished within a few lengths of the winner or contested an abnormally fast pace in the early stages of the race only to fail. Without a good excuse, then it probably isn't at that level, yet on the other hand, if it ran out of the money.

Form cycles are what determine the class of a horse. At which a horse can be competitive since form changes so does the level.Another very important consideration is age. As a horse gets older it is more difficult to rise above its own class while a young horse of 2, 3, or even 4 may still be developing and can rise in class.

For the race and then eliminate any horse who does not have a cumulative score that high one of the popular methods of determining who the competitors in a race may be is to set a class level.By one of the major past performance companies for instance, the class score for a 6 furlong 10,000 claiming race for 3 year olds and up may be 79, using the score supplied. A three who are below that level scanning the entries you find that there are 3 horses who have a 79 or higher.According to this method, those horses whose scores are below 79 would be dismissed from consideration for the win position.

On closer inspection you find that two of the horses who fail to measure up are three year olds, while the third horse is a 6 year old. The three year olds are moving up through their conditions. That would expect it that they will improve. Another story for the six year old. Unless there is something radical that is going to occur in its training, that horse has demonstrated through the years its own class level.Does still have a form cycle, the top of the form cycle has usually been established for older horses while it is true that any horse, no matter how old or young.As it ages, barring catastrophic injuries it will gradually lose class.

Look for the top level an older horse has competed at and consider that its form cycle ceiling, but do not discount younger horses who may still be seeking their own level of ability when handicapping class.




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