After 4 weeks of strength, the S&P finally put in a red candle, a narrow one, but a reversal bar nonetheless. While this doesn't mean the market HAS to pull back, it suggests the market may be willing to take a few profits here and make prices more attractive for long entries.
A retest of the 50% Fib level at S&P 1121 would be a very mild retracement, while a drop to the 10 day ma (1106) or 20 day ma (S&P 1093) would scare a few more longs out of their positions. There should be some shorting opportunities on a pullback, but keep in mind that those would be counter trend trades (relative to the daily uptrend), so take profits along the way and don't be greedy with targets.
The bigger opportunity will be in watching strong stocks pulling back in order to find long entries for the next leg up.
Energy stocks were among the strongest sectors last week, and several coal stocks broke out on Friday. Peabody Energy (BTU) gapped up Friday, near the high of Thursday's high volume red bar, and then continued higher, trapping all of the bears from Thursday as it cleared both daily and weekly resistance on even higher volume. BTU could be entered as a long over Friday's high ($51.25), but if the market is weak Monday morning, a pullback could provide a better entry. The technical stop would be under Friday's low ($49.66), which might be reasonable if you buy BTU on an intraday pullback. Otherwise look for a stop under support on the 15 or 60min chart. Target would be the 52 week high at $52.14, and you could hold a portion looking for another dollar if BTU overshoots the high.
Real Estate companies have been moving up for almost 2 years, but some are showing signs of tiring. Boston Properties (BXP) made a new 52 week high 2 weeks ago, but sold off on strong volume and moved below both the 20 and 50 day moving averages. If the market pulls back, BXP, which is already showing relative weakness, could drop to the next support level. Consider shorting under Thursday's low ($82.63), with a stop over Friday's high ($83.99). Targets would be $80.50 and $79.40.
A retest of the 50% Fib level at S&P 1121 would be a very mild retracement, while a drop to the 10 day ma (1106) or 20 day ma (S&P 1093) would scare a few more longs out of their positions. There should be some shorting opportunities on a pullback, but keep in mind that those would be counter trend trades (relative to the daily uptrend), so take profits along the way and don't be greedy with targets.
The bigger opportunity will be in watching strong stocks pulling back in order to find long entries for the next leg up.
Energy stocks were among the strongest sectors last week, and several coal stocks broke out on Friday. Peabody Energy (BTU) gapped up Friday, near the high of Thursday's high volume red bar, and then continued higher, trapping all of the bears from Thursday as it cleared both daily and weekly resistance on even higher volume. BTU could be entered as a long over Friday's high ($51.25), but if the market is weak Monday morning, a pullback could provide a better entry. The technical stop would be under Friday's low ($49.66), which might be reasonable if you buy BTU on an intraday pullback. Otherwise look for a stop under support on the 15 or 60min chart. Target would be the 52 week high at $52.14, and you could hold a portion looking for another dollar if BTU overshoots the high.
Real Estate companies have been moving up for almost 2 years, but some are showing signs of tiring. Boston Properties (BXP) made a new 52 week high 2 weeks ago, but sold off on strong volume and moved below both the 20 and 50 day moving averages. If the market pulls back, BXP, which is already showing relative weakness, could drop to the next support level. Consider shorting under Thursday's low ($82.63), with a stop over Friday's high ($83.99). Targets would be $80.50 and $79.40.
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Affinity is an Online Trading and Proprietary Trading Firm providing trading services to both experienced and beginning traders. In addition to day trading courses, Affinity also offers a swing trading program for those wanting to hold positions overnight.
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